One of the amazing things about the Summer Olympics is how every four years the athletes manage to set new Olympic and world records. Humans are continually running or swimming just a little bit faster every generation. It is the miracle of evolution happening right in front of our eyes. However, that is not the case in thoroughbred horse racing. If anything, the horses are getting a little bit slower every generation.
Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, while certainly exciting thanks to the incredible stretch run by Rich Strike–an 80-1 longshot that wasn’t even in the race field until Friday–was also rather slow. For the 48th consecutive year, no horse broke Secretariat’s record of 1:59.4 for the mile and a quarter race. In fact, Rich Strike would have finished 13 lengths behind Secretariat. He also would have been 11 lengths behind Sham–who finished 2nd to Secretariat in 1973, eight lengths behind Northern Dancer–who won the race in 1964, 7 lengths behind Decidedly–the 1962 winner–and 6 lengths behind Proud Clarion in 1967.
Just one horse, Monarchos in 2001, has joined Secretariat and Sham in the sub two-minute club. That despite increased knowledge of proper training habits, nutrition, and horses not being worked nearly as hard as they used to be before big races. So why aren’t the horses getting any faster?
Experts point to several reasons: One, horses don’t know that there are race record times to be set. Usain Bolt not only set out to beat every other guy in his races, but he also set out to break world records–often his own. Therefore, he didn’t need to have a small man riding on his back whipping his hindquarters to get him to run a little bit faster. The same goes for Michael Phelps and Katie Ladecky in swimming–they are their own motivation to go even faster the next time they are in the pool.
Secondly, the tracks themselves are working to slow down the horses. “Firm and fast” now is not as “firm and fast” as it was in 1973. Track surfaces are kept softer today in an effort to reduce wear and tear on the horses. While injuries are part of any sport, those suffered by thoroughbreds are often devastating and lead to death (for reasons we will get into in a moment) and the last thing the racing community wants is for endless replays of a horse breaking down in one of the three races that people actually tune into watch. Meanwhile, human athletes in the Olympics and World Championships enjoy venues specifically designed to enhance their performance. Jessie Owens set the world record in the 100-meters running on a track made of cinders. Usain Bolt set his record on a rubberized surface designed to return some of the energy of each footstep back into his legs to propel him into his next stride. Phelps and Ladecky enjoy pools engineered to reduce wave action and swimsuits that increase buoyancy and reduce drag in the water.
But the major reason horses are slower today is that breeding techniques have made them that way. Rich Strike was one of just three horses in Saturday’s race that did NOT have Secretariat in his bloodline. While humans have become more genetically diverse, thoroughbreds are becoming genetically narrow–with nearly all of those at the highest level sharing the same 65 recent ancestors. One of the reasons horse racing saw a sudden increase in both speed and Triple Crown winners in the 1970’s was the introduction of more European and Asian bloodlines thanks to easier transportation of the animals between continents.
What’s more, today’s horses may actually be a bit faster than those of my childhood–but they aren’t able to maintain that speed as far. Most races are not as long as those in the Triple Crown. For many in the race, it’s the first time they are going a mile and a quarter. Rich Strike blew past a lot of horses that were literally exhausted and running on fumes those final couple of furlongs. Consider that in his 1973 record run, Secretariat ran each quarter mile faster than the one previous. He was still ACCELERATING at the end of the race. And the continuous in-breeding has produced more physically-fragile animals. I don’t know how much coverage was provided to the initial winner of last year’s race–Medina Spirit–who was later stripped of the title due to failing a drug test (leading to a two year ban for trainer Bob Baffert and his repeated doping violations) and is already dead–having had a suspected heart attack while on a training run at Santa Anita in California last fall. (If you want to really be disturbed about what is going on with horse racing, check out horse deaths at Santa Anita the past few years).
It’s unfortunate that casinos won’t take a bet (or offer good odds) on it, but I would wager my house, my Jeep, and all of my future earnings and stock holdings that Secretariat’s record time in the Preakness and his record time in the Belmont (which is still two seconds faster than any horse has run in the past 30-years) will not be broken again this year. Plain and simple, the horses just don’t have it in them anymore.
