You’re going to hear “Menasha will never be the same” quite a lot over the next few weeks, months, and even years. And those that say it will more than likely be correct. The Menasha that so many of us long-time Fox Valley residents know will not be coming back.
In past iterations of this feature, I’ve noted that large-scale urban redevelopment used to be far more common in the early 20th century due in large part to fire–and blazes that consumed large sections of municipalities. Cities like Chicago and Oshkosh were ushered into the modern urban era by large-scale fires that destroyed wide swaths of the cities, requiring mass reconstruction. In cities like San Francisco, earthquakes have remade skylines–while along the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic, hurricanes have led to rebirths of some areas in new ways after extensive flooding.
Once the downed trees are cleared, the power poles and lines are restored, and estimates can be made as to the extent of all the damage, some serious decisions will have to be made.
For those that had their homes destroyed, will it be worth it to rebuild? While I would assume that everyone had homeowners insurance, will those policies pay out enough to actually build a new home in today’s market? Fair market value for a home built prior to the pandemic is not going to come close to covering the cost of building the same house with the same size, materials and amenities from new. So, how many homeowners will choose to just pay off the mortgage–pocket the rest–and look to buy somewhere else?
For the rental property owners, they face the same question. Is the expense of building an entirely new house or duplex a sound business idea? Those insurance checks would probably go a lot farther toward purchasing another older existing house somewhere else in the city. And those tenants face a likely dilemma, as a decision not to rebuild means you have no place to go back to–and a decision to rebuild new means much higher rent.
And what about those neighborhood bars, bakeries, and other small businesses that have “been around forever”? Young people are using marijuana a lot more than alcohol now, so is it worth it to try to reopen the corner pub? DoorDash and UberEats work much better for the national chains and fast-food places, so is the expense of a new dine-in eatery going to be worth it? And who offers breakfast food without coffee?
It is entirely possible that much of the property in the hardest-hit parts of Menasha will basically be abandoned–and that is where local government, and those with their own ideas for urban redevelopment, will step in.
When you look at Menasha’s zoning map, the majority of what the locals are calling “ground zero” lies in R-1 single-family designation. If you have been following our copious stories about redevelopment and rezoning in other communities, you’d know that R-1 is under attack on all fronts. Urban density is all the rage–and what better time to do away with it in what had been a residential neighborhood than after the neighborhood is wiped out by a tornado? For years now, Common Council members have bemoaned the fact that Menasha is “land-locked”, and that the only way to build additional housing base and property tax revenue is through “in-fill”.
The thought that entire blocks would be available for redevelopment must already be going through the minds of some Menasha leaders. At some point, visions of new “multi-purpose” developments with hundreds of apartment units and townhouses, ground-floor retail, and walking trails will start dancing in their heads. Being able to say “I helped clear the way for that to be built” to your friends while pointing at a five-story building with six shades of brown exterior and weird-angled walls is very enticing.
Young progressives are taking over in Menasha City Hall–whether elected or hired for their positions–and young progressives want more young progressives to join them. And since young progressives have been told that they will never be able to afford their own houses, they have learned to accept being crammed into as small a space as possible to live. So they want more opportunities to live in such “communities”–well, provided everyone else in there thinks the same way they do. And a bonus for government officials: renters never come to complain about property tax increases, utility rate hikes, or garbage and recycling fees because they just assume its the “greedy landlord” that charging more for rent.
That’s something that those considering rebuilding their existing single-family homes will have to consider. As other cities have shown, just because it’s R-1 on the map next to you now, that doesn’t guarantee that it can’t become R-4 Multi Family, High Density after the next Common Council meeting. How much additional traffic, noise, and police activity are you willing to stomach to keep that family home in the family after you went from a couple of neighbors to more than 80?
It’s also attractive to re-imagine the commercial corridors as well. Who needs a car repair place when everyone is walking and biking on the paths of the new housing developments? Why not replace that bakery with a new Asian-Latin fusion restaurant? Which will eventually become a brewpub. Which will eventually become an in-house coffee roaster. Which will then become a Tex-Mex place. Which will turn into a ramen and pho restaurant. Which will give way to a hot chicken place. Which will…..well, you get the idea. And what had been the corner bar for several generations can see much more businesses selling vape pens and THC products of questionable legality.
In addition to wielding the power of rezoning, Menasha city government will be flush with cash through state and federal disaster aid–and still have tax incremental financing to sweeten any development deals. It’s not often you hear about TIF designations for a new neighborhood of houses and duplexes–but you can’t even consider putting up a high-density apartment building without it–along with state and federal tax credits. So as long as those pot sweeteners are available, more apartment builders will come calling at Menasha City Hall than those looking to re-create the traditional neighborhood that was destroyed.
Hopefully, Menasha officials will have learned a hard lesson from The Brin development–which was plagued by construction delays, slow rental rates, lawsuits from sub-contractors, and still no ground-floor retail presence. I would also hope that they check out the study conducted by Forward Analytics for the Wisconsin Counties Association showing that the predicted demand for new housing units in the state was greatly overstated following the pandemic. And I would hope that they consider that their neighbors in Appleton are clearing the way for more than 2,000 new housing units on the Thrivent property (although I’ll believe that much will be built when I see it) and consider how competitive apartments in a downtown area of Menasha will be with units just minutes away from access to Interstate 41.
If history is any guide, those that may have grown up in Menasha and moved away years ago will return to the city in the coming years and not recognize the place. And they will be correct in saying, “Menasha will never be the same again”.
