There is a phrase that actual conservatives like to use to describe the current President’s effect on what goes on around him: Everything Trump Touches Dies. You may have seen it used in social media posts the last decade or so–usually abbreviated down to #ETTD. The latest example of that came this week, as Trump’s endorsement of Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel in the race for Wisconsin Supreme Court ensured that conservatives will be in the minority on the high court until 2028 at the earliest. And if Trump continues to “throw his support” behind candidates as the conservative seats come up for election in 2026 and 2027, it could become a 6-1 liberal majority by that point.
No politician in my lifetime has had shorter coattails than Donald Trump. In fact, I would say the only person that Donald Trump has ever helped to elect is…..Donald Trump.
Consider that here in Wisconsin, his endorsements have failed to defeat Tony Evers (twice), Tammy Baldwin, and Josh Kaul (twice). Tony Weid and Derrick Van Orden won in Congressional districts that remain very friendly to Republicans–but, thanks to Trump’s killing of conservative state Supreme Court justices, will likely be re-drawn before the next election cycle (along with that of Bryan Steil in Southeast Wisconsin), putting at least two and possibly all three seats within reach of a Democratic flip in 2026–especially if Trump interjects himself into any of the races.
It was clear that Schimel was uncomfortable accepting the “help” from the Trump camp. The President literally “phoned in” an ad that ran in the final week or so of the campaign. And instead of making salient points about how electing Susan Crawford to the bench would likely spell the end of municipal spending controls contained in Act 10, the state having no limits on abortion access, the aforementioned writing of new Congressional districts from the bench, and the upholding of a 400-year school funding increase created by a line-item veto by Governor Tony Evers, the President instead went into his usual tired tropes about Crawford being an “unhinged lunatic liberal” that would set all of the sex offenders free to terrorize the state.
I need to stop here for a brief side note. It is time for state Supreme Court candidates to change their strategies when it comes to campaign advertising. Justices rarely, if ever, make sentencing decisions in criminal cases. They can find that the original circuit court judge made an error in determining a fair sentence and remand the case back for re-sentencing, but they are not issuing rulings that reduce prison terms.
Every Brad Schimel ad should have accused Crawford of planning to overturn Act 10 and drive up property taxes, gerrymander the state’s voting districts from the bench, and undo all voter identification requirements that were previously approved by the Legislature. Running ads like that would have forced Crawford to at least claim that she had not “pre-judged” those issues (even though she had–and had gone on the record stating as much)–which could have created at least some doubt in the minds of those who planned on voting for her strictly in hopes of overturning those measures.
And I need to take another little side trip here. I found it a bit off-putting when the three other liberal women on the court came out with Crawford before her victory speech Tuesday night all hooting and hollering and holding hands raised in triumph like they were the US Gymnastics team after winning another Olympic gold medal. That just gives the appearance that everyone knows how the “new kid” is going to rule on everything coming before the court, rather than “considering every case on its own merits” like is always claimed on the campaign trail and in debates.
(Yet another aside. When I was in high school we got a tour of the state Capitol and had an audience with Supreme Court Justice Shirley Abrahamson. When she asked if any of us had any questions, I raised my hand and asked: “Because you are elected, does that ever factor into your decisions and how they may affect your popularity?” Justice Abrahamson got pretty pissed off about that, and snapped at me “NO! We would never consider politics before the law!” I miss those days.)
Another thing we should not underestimate is the effect that Elon Musk had on this race. The site of a foreigner tossing around huge sums of money, promising millions of dollars to people to vote for Schimel–I mean “sign the petition against activist judges” and “take a picture of themselves holding a picture of Brad Schimel” no doubt turned off enough voters to make the final margin of defeat even worse. Calling a state Supreme Court race in the 20th largest state in the US something that will “determine the future of humanity” showed how out of touch Musk is with reality. I find it ironic that Musk’s “boss” took to his Truth social media platform Wednesday morning to post a screen shot of a headline touting the passage of the voter ID referendum and calling that “the most important thing to happen in Wisconsin last night”.
That leads me to believe that Trump didn’t place another call to Brad Schimel after the election to console him on his loss, or to apologize for throwing his influence into the race with little knowledge of the issues, and his amazing ability to rally opposition, and allowing his lapdog billionaire to come in and act like people can get paid to vote.
And speaking of voters….This week it’s Republican’s turn again to figure out just what is a “Trump voter”. While they are feared within the party and treated like a monster that must be placated at all times, they are incredibly unreliable anytime Donald Trump himself is not on the ballot. Musk’s America PAC ran ads claiming that Susan Crawford would “block Trump’s agenda in Wisconsin”. I guess that didn’t worry many of those that swear only Trump can “save the country”. The state GOP is probably considering hiring some consultants to see “what issues are important to Trump voters” in hopes of stressing those in the 2026 mid-terms–but anything those people say today will be totally irrelevant by the time Fox News Channel and Trump himself completely change the narrative in a year, or a month, or a week, or in the next 10-seconds.
In the meantime, add the Wisconsin Supreme Court to the list with Trump Airlines, Trump University, Trump Taj Mahal, GoTrump.com, Trump Mortgage, the 2016 Republican majorities in both the House and the Senate, the US response to the COVID-19 pandemic, international trade, and keeping the Taliban out of power in Afghanistan of things that Trump has touched….and died.
Before I wrap up, I’d like to congratulate Jill Underly for running the most-successful non-campaign for a statewide office since Doug LaFollette continued to get elected Secretary of State for 40-years. Underly did almost no press conferences, made few campaign appearances outside of academic settings, agreed to just one forum with her opponent, Brittany Kinser, never explained why it took an act of the Legislature to require the Science of Reading curriculum in elementary schools (while falsely claiming that she wanted those changes) and failed to receive the endorsement of her predecessor, Tony Evers because of her decision to change testing standards so that previous results could not be compared to test results going forward.
No fewer than four people involved in public education in this area told me they were never going to vote for her again because “she is absolutely unqualified for the job”. And yet, the Democratic party machine still got behind her and pushed her over the finish line again. Maybe Donald Trump should have come out and said that he thought she was doing a great job–that likely would have sunk her ship immediately.
