For the first time I can recall, tonight’s State of the Union Address will be followed by not one, not two, but three “responses”. Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds will deliver the traditional Republican response–in which she will blame President Biden and Democrats for everything that ails Americans now, and make a bunch of promises the GOP likely wouldn’t be able to keep either. This is a tradition since TV made politicians “stars”, and Reynolds getting this prime time slot makes her the new “rising force” in the Republican party.
The two new non-traditional responses are coming from within the President’s own party. Michigan Congresswoman Rashida Talaib will be getting national exposure to air her grievances about the Biden administration, members of her own party in Congress, and I’m sure every other white guy in America. Fellow Democrats are labeling this “response” as “keying your own car” and “another example of the circular firing squad that is the Democratic party”.
And if that wasn’t enough, Texas Congressman Colin Allred will present the Congressional Black Caucus response. That is likely to focus on the failure of majority Democrats to pass election laws, mitigate the effects on the pandemic on Black communities, and other problems created by white guys.
All of this backlash and criticism from within his own party reveals an issue with the Joe Biden presidency from the day after Election Day 2020: The man has no core constituency. Can you think of anyone in your circle of friends and family that is a “hardcore” Joe Biden backer? Someone who quotes lines used by the President in speeches? Or refers to points made by Biden in discussing issues? I will grant you that the two presidents we elected before Biden were more due to the cult of personality than actual qualifications–but “Yes We Can” and “Make America Great Again” actually inspired some people and generated a sense of loyalty to guys who really weren’t offering much. Plain and simple, Joe Biden was elected because he is NOT Donald Trump. And he accomplished the only thing that the voters that decided the election wanted from him on inauguration day. Almost nothing was expected from him beyond that.
Republicans are licking their chops as Biden’s approval ratings move to the record low territory occupied by Trump just a few years ago. The GOP anticipates a “red tsunami” in the November mid-terms and a triumphant return to the White House in November of 2024. But strategists are likely looking deeper in the numbers and finding that a Republican sweep may not be as easy as they think.
You know where President Biden has lost the most support? It’s in voters under the age of 35. Those are the people that voted for him in 2020 on the promise that they were going to get a lot of stuff–and the President hasn’t come through. He didn’t forgive student loan debt, he didn’t make college free for everyone, he didn’t raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, he didn’t fully-subsidize child care, he didn’t tank the US economy by pushing for the Green New Deal, he didn’t propose a wealth tax to confiscate and redistribute assets, and he didn’t bring COVID under control so bars in big cities could reopen all night. Those are the “failings” that Congresswoman Talaib is going to be pointing out tonight–and they are issues that not a single Republican is going to use to convince that growing number of voters to back them in either this November or 2024.
Congressman Allred will point to how Biden didn’t work hard enough to change election laws so that you literally don’t have to step foot out of your house to vote because someone should just come to your door, hand you the pen, help you fill in the circles, take the ballot back and put it in a box for you–because that is fair. And he’ll mention that marijuana is still illegal under federal law, that a lot of Black men are still locked up for selling a lot of it for years, that guns stolen from white people living outside of major cities are used to commit crimes inside major cities with strict gun control laws, that COVID was not brought under control–continuing to cost minorities jobs, and that nominating a Black woman to the US Supreme Court is not going to change the life of a Black person in any way, shape or form. Again, not issues that are going to send Congressman Allred’s constituency to the Republican side of the ballot anytime soon.
President Ronald Reagan had similar disastrous polling numbers early in his first term. Inflation and unemployment were still bad and there was a recession. But by the fall 0f 1984, things had turned around–so much so that a commercial called “It’s Morning Again in America” actually reflected the mood of a vast majority of Americans–and Reagan won the largest landslide in history, winning all but one state and the District of Columbia.
Could Joe Biden do the same? Certainly not to the extent that Reagan did–as voters now are so much more rigidly-aligned with parties. And certainly not if he runs against a Republican looking to break away from the administration that preceded Biden. But if all he needs to do is NOT be Donald Trump again in 2024, those 20,000 people in Wisconsin, and those 20,000 people in Michigan, and those 20,000 people in Pennsylvania, and those 10,000 people in Georgia will probably carry him to victory again. Even if they don’t care–or even know–what he stands for.
